Where the structure is real, and where it is names on paper
Two coverage figures, and only one of them is true
The figure a structure report quotes. Counts every ward the same, from Jaba to Kano Municipal.
The same structure, divided through by the votes each ward actually carried in 2023. This is the number that predicts an outcome.
The gap between them is -18.6 points. A campaign told it is 49% covered will resource as though it is; it is functionally 68% covered against the electorate. Every ward-count coverage report in Nigerian party organising has this bug, and it always errs in the same direction — flattering, never alarming.
Ward status
8,813 wardsCoverage by zone
Share of wards filledWhere the ward count flatters you most
Ward coverage minus vote-weighted coverageThese are the states where a structure report would most mislead the campaign that commissioned it. The mechanism is always the same: coverage concentrated in the small wards and thin in the heavy ones, which a headcount cannot see.
Votes at risk by state
Sitting under exposed or vacant structureThe chase list. Ranked by 2023 votes sitting behind broken structure, not by the number of wards involved.
How this is derived
Stated, not hidden- The geography is real
- 8,813 wards in their actual states and LGAs, reconciled against INEC’s declared 8,809. The 2023 vote each state cast is INEC’s declaration.
- The coverage status is simulated
- Deterministic from seed ng-2027-demo. In deployment this is a read of the party’s own structure returns — a different data source, not a different model.
- Ward vote weight is apportioned
- Each ward is credited an equal share of its state’s 2023 result. Approximate by construction — INEC does not publish ward-level presidential results — and it is the single largest modelling assumption on this page. Ward-level returns from the parallel count would replace it.
- No individual is named
- A ward carries a count of filled roles, never a roster of people. Eight thousand wards times four roles is thirty-five thousand names a demo has no business inventing, and personal data this platform has no lawful basis to hold.