Five races, two polling days, one structure
Federal polling day
16 January 2027 · 136 daysPlurality nationally, plus 25% in at least 24 of 37 states and the FCT
Plurality in each senatorial district
Plurality in each federal constituency
State polling day
6 February 2027 · 157 daysPlurality statewide, plus 25% in two-thirds of the state’s LGAs
Plurality in each state constituency
The 25% spread test
Cleared in 29 of 37 in 2023 · 24 requiredMost fragile — cleared, but barely
Cheapest to gain — just below the line
The presidency is not won on votes alone. A candidate needs a plurality nationally and at least 25% in two-thirds of the states plus the FCT. That makes a vote banked in a state already comfortably above the line worth less than the same vote in a state sitting just under it — arithmetic that a national vote-share target hides completely.
Governorships not on the 2027 ballot
8 states run off-cycleTwenty-eight governorships are contested in 2027, not thirty-six. A resource model that spreads governorship effort evenly across the federation is wrong in eight states — and those eight still vote in the presidential, Senate, House and State Assembly races across both polling days. They need federal structure and no governorship structure, which is a different brief and a different budget line.