What is being said, against where the votes are
The 2023 arithmetic
What the platform is built againstAPC did not out-poll the opposition in 2023. The opposition polled 14,582,740 — 1.66× the winning total — and split three ways. Since then Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, Amaechi and Aregbesola have consolidated on one platform and undertaken to back a single primary winner. Every allocation decision downstream of this page is a response to that one change.
Attention gap by zone
Share of signal minus share of the 2023 votePositive means the zone generates more of the national conversation than it casts of the national vote. Negative means the campaign is under-watching a place that decides the election. Monitoring ranked by volume alone would invert this list — which is the whole reason nothing on this page reports volume without dividing it through by weight.
Blind spots
7 states · 25.4% of the national voteCasts more of the vote than it generates signal. You are under-watching it. These states carry 25.4% of the vote between them. A monitoring contract that does not name them explicitly will not cover them, because no commercial media-monitoring product samples them densely.
Echo chambers
5 states · 30.3% of signal on light statesGenerates more signal than it casts vote. You are over-reacting to it. This is not an argument for ignoring them — they set the national frame and the press reads them. It is an argument against letting their volume set the rapid-response queue.
Every state, signal against weight
Sorted by 2023 valid votes · darker is more signal per vote castContested and heavy
Net-negative sentiment in states that carry votesHeavy vote and net-negative sentiment. Work this list first.
What this page cannot yet see
Stated, not hidden- The polling unit roll is 58,314 units short
- The freely available national geography predates INEC’s 2021 expansion: 118,532 of 176,846, a third of the roll. Structure — 37 states, 774 LGAs — is exact. Coverage denominators use INEC’s figure, never the bundled one.
- Signal here is simulated
- Outlet names are real; volumes and sentiments are generated from seed ng-2027-demo. The INEC half of every comparison is real.
assertPublishable()refuses to let a derived figure reach the public surface while either input is simulated. - No individual is profiled
SourceKindadmits only public broadcast surfaces and the campaign’s own field returns. There is no variant for a private group, a direct message or a named private citizen, so the ingest path cannot express one. Under the Nigeria Data Protection Act 2023 a political affiliation is sensitive personal data; the smallest unit this platform reasons about is a polling unit, never a person.
Where the votes actually are
2023 valid votes by stateThe top fifteen states cast 58% of the national vote. Total valid votes recorded across all 37 units: 24,028,690.