Command

Election day, from one room

Days out
136
Units reporting
69.1%
of 176,846
Rehearsal — the poll has not happenedCoverage, results and incidents are generated from seed ng-2027-demo, anchored to real 2023 returns so the shape is plausible. The geography and the 176,846 denominator are INEC’s.
Polling units
176,846
INEC roll
Agents accredited
157,461
89.0%
Forms received
122,178
69.1%
Votes counted
15,806,927
parallel count
Incidents
180
21 unacknowledged
Disputed forms
16
both versions published

Coverage against INEC's roll

122,178 of 176,846 units
69%
20%
11%

The denominator is INEC’s 176,846, not the 118,532 this platform can currently place on a ward. Reporting against the smaller figure would show 103.1% instead of 69.1%. The flattering number is not the one on the board.

Parallel count

Collected forms only · not a declaration
ADC
44.7%
7,068,821
APC
38.2%
6,035,292
Others
9.6%
1,522,194
PDP
4.1%
651,760
LP
3.3%
528,860

Read from 122,178 photographed result forms, each carrying a polling unit code, a timestamp and a named accredited agent. Shares are of what has been collected so far and will move as more arrive. Where this and the official record differ, the official record stands. This is evidence, not a rival declaration.

Incident desks

21 unacknowledged
Legal537 open
Security liaison91 open
Media3
Operations11513 open

Routing is a pure function of type and severity, not a judgement call. On the day, the desk assignment has to be instant, identical every time, and auditable afterwards.

Weakest coverage

States by share of units reporting
Sokoto
1,708 of 4,476 units
38%
Yobe
979 of 2,547 units
38%
Taraba
1,121 of 2,850 units
39%
Zamfara
1,482 of 3,752 units
39%
Kebbi
1,439 of 3,557 units
40%
Bayelsa
1,126 of 2,662 units
42%
Adamawa
1,741 of 3,843 units
45%
Borno
2,702 of 5,849 units
46%
Cross River
1,549 of 3,346 units
46%
Plateau
2,428 of 3,630 units
67%

Thin coverage in the far corners is usually connectivity rather than absence — forms captured offline sync when signal returns, keeping their original timestamp and location. It becomes a problem only if it is still thin at collation.

Reporting by state

Darker is more complete
Lagos
73
Kano
68
Kaduna
78
Katsina
73
Oyo
68
Anambra
80
Rivers
79
Bauchi
76
Borno
46
Benue
80
Delta
81
Jigawa
80
Imo
79
Ogun
74
Niger
78
Sokoto
38
Osun
75
Akwa Ibom
82
Enugu
70
Ondo
77
Abia
76
Edo
71
Adamawa
45
Kogi
73
Zamfara
39
Plateau
67
Kebbi
40
Cross River
46
Gombe
77
Ekiti
72
Taraba
39
Kwara
83
Bayelsa
42
Ebonyi
76
Yobe
38
Nasarawa
80
FCT
72

Incident feed

37 high or critical of 180
critical11
high26
medium63
low80
Result discrepancySurulere, OyoLegal

Second submission disagrees with the first on the total for one party. Both published.

18:02
Violence or intimidationSapele, DeltaSecurity liaison

Disturbance at the unit; voting suspended pending security response.

17:32
Irregular collationIwajowa, OyoLegal

Ward collation attempted without party agents present.

17:11
BVAS failurePankshin, PlateauOperationsunacknowledged

Device failed to authenticate; INEC technician requested.

16:24
Agent denied accessOnitsha South, AnambraLegal

Agent admitted after intervention by the LGA supervisor.

15:35
BVAS failureLamurde, AdamawaOperations

Second BVAS deployed after the first stopped mid-accreditation.

15:11
BVAS failureKokona, NasarawaOperations

Second BVAS deployed after the first stopped mid-accreditation.

15:06
Inducement at the unitMaiyama, KebbiLegal

Inducement reported within the 300-metre perimeter; police liaison notified.

14:57
Materials late or missingQua'an Pan, PlateauOperationsunacknowledged

Sensitive materials had not arrived two hours after the accreditation window opened.

14:51
Result discrepancyAkoko South West, OndoLegal

Form total does not reconcile with the sum of party figures on the same sheet.

14:42

Against the 2023 baseline

What the same electorate did last time
2023 valid votes
24,025,940
presidential
Counted here
15,806,927
65.8%
2023 turnout
26.71%
lowest ever
Registered
93,469,008
2023 register

The parallel count is anchored to the 2023 result moved by a modest uniform swing, with the 2023 PDP and Labour vote largely inherited by the ADC coalition those candidates now sit on. That is an assumption for demonstration, not a forecast, and the real thing reads from forms rather than from a model.