Campaign. Narrative control, mobilisation and coverage. The window where persuasion still moves.
A plurality is not enough. This is the constitutional test.
The ward-count figure is the one that flatters you.
Closes on an INEC deadline and cannot be reopened.
Monitoring ranked by volume would miss all of it.
Evidence — 7 states carrying 25.4% of the national vote generate materially less signal than their weight
Do — Commission language-native monitoring in these states. No commercial media product samples them densely.
Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Benue, Sokoto
Evidence — 1.9m 2023 votes in wards classified exposed or vacant, concentrated in 5 states
Do — Fill or replace ward leadership, heaviest ward first. Escalate vacancies past 14 days.
Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Anambra, Delta
Evidence — 218 mentions, velocity 4.0x, across states carrying 20.7% of the national vote
Do — Draft and clear a response through the approval gate before the next news cycle.
Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi
Evidence — 19,385 of 176,846 units unaccredited — 11.0% of the roll
Do — Close accreditation before the INEC deadline. An unaccredited agent files nothing and defends nothing.
National
Evidence — 58,314 of INEC's 176,846 units cannot be placed on a ward — the bundled geography predates the 2021 expansion
Do — Obtain the current directory from INEC or the CredibleVoteNG API before agent assignment depends on it.
National
Evidence — Kaduna: net sentiment -24, 5.7% of the national vote, APC 29% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Kaduna
Evidence — Lagos: net sentiment -15, 5.3% of the national vote, APC 45% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Lagos
Evidence — 6 states finished within 6 points, together carrying 20.6% of the national vote
Do — Treat as the priority allocation list. None of these are safe in either direction.
Benue, Sokoto, Katsina, Lagos, Osun, Nasarawa
Evidence — Plateau: net sentiment -17, 4.5% of the national vote, APC 28% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Plateau
Evidence — Bauchi: net sentiment -29, 3.6% of the national vote, APC 37% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Bauchi
Evidence — Oyo: net sentiment -41, 3.4% of the national vote, APC 56% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Oyo
Evidence — Osun: net sentiment -33, 3.1% of the national vote, APC 47% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Osun
Evidence — Adamawa: net sentiment -44, 3.0% of the national vote, APC 25% in 2023
Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.
Adamawa
Every row names the number that fired it and the desk that owns it. Rules are pure functions over the platform’s own data and are not configurable from this screen — a campaign that can silence its own alarms will, at 2am, on the day.
Share of the 2023 national valid vote. The denominator behind every other view.
Administrative boundaries from geoBoundaries (gbOpen), simplified and projected at build time. These are state boundaries, not INEC constituency delimitation. A pink dot marks a state carrying an open trigger. Toggle vote weight to see the same metric sized by electorate rather than by land area.
Select a state for its 2023 result, current signal, structure and volunteer coverage, and any open triggers scoped to it.
APC won 2023 on 36.61% — the lowest winning share in Nigerian history — on the lowest turnout ever recorded.
The opposition polled 1.66× the winning total and split three ways. They have since consolidated on one platform.
Roughly 69m registered Nigerians did not vote at all. Turnout is the only lever that moves fast.