NG2027
7
Campaign · 13 open triggers

What needs a decision today

The stake

2023 was won on 36.61% — the lowest winning share in Nigerian history. The opposition polled 1.66× the winning total and split three ways. They have since consolidated on one platform. 68.5m registered Nigerians did not vote at all.

Campaign · presidential poll
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National picture

Click a state to filter the queue

2023 votes sitting behind exposed or vacant ward structure.

Abia — 191k at riskAdamawa — 243k at riskAkwa Ibom — 160k at riskAnambra — 334k at riskFCT — 230k at riskBauchi — 242k at riskBayelsa — 55k at riskBenue — 140k at riskBorno — 91k at riskCross River — 140k at riskDelta — 310k at riskEbonyi — 188k at riskEdo — 196k at riskEkiti — 47k at riskEnugu — 233k at riskGombe — 210k at riskImo — 267k at riskJigawa — 144k at riskKaduna — 411k at riskKano — 531k at riskKatsina — 176k at riskKebbi — 102k at riskKogi — 90k at riskKwara — 66k at riskLagos — 140k at riskNasarawa — 165k at riskNiger — 134k at riskOgun — 98k at riskOndo — 92k at riskOsun — 113k at riskOyo — 159k at riskPlateau — 336k at riskRivers — 67k at riskSokoto — 96k at riskTaraba — 143k at riskYobe — 62k at riskZamfara — 92k at riskABADAKANFCTBABYBEBOCRDEEBEDEKENGOIMJIKDKNKTKBKOKWLANANIOGONOSOYPLRISOTAYOZA
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Administrative boundaries from geoBoundaries (gbOpen), simplified and projected at build time. These are state boundaries, not INEC constituency delimitation. A pink dot marks a state carrying an open trigger. Toggle vote weight to see the same metric sized by electorate rather than by land area.

Decide now

4 critical
critical25% of the vote

Material vote sitting in monitoring blind spots

7 states carrying 25.4% of the national vote generate materially less signal than their weight

Commission language-native monitoring in these states. No commercial media product samples them densely.

Open →
critical22% of the vote

Votes sitting under broken ward structure

1.9m 2023 votes in wards classified exposed or vacant, concentrated in 5 states

Fill or replace ward leadership, heaviest ward first. Escalate vacancies past 14 days.

Open →
critical21% of the vote

Claim accelerating with no approved response

218 mentions, velocity 4.0x, across states carrying 20.7% of the national vote

Draft and clear a response through the approval gate before the next news cycle.

Open →

10 more below

Action queue

criticalMaterial vote sitting in monitoring blind spots

Evidence — 7 states carrying 25.4% of the national vote generate materially less signal than their weight

Do — Commission language-native monitoring in these states. No commercial media product samples them densely.

Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Benue, Sokoto

25%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
criticalVotes sitting under broken ward structure

Evidence — 1.9m 2023 votes in wards classified exposed or vacant, concentrated in 5 states

Do — Fill or replace ward leadership, heaviest ward first. Escalate vacancies past 14 days.

Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Anambra, Delta

22%
vote touched
Field operations →
criticalClaim accelerating with no approved response

Evidence — 218 mentions, velocity 4.0x, across states carrying 20.7% of the national vote

Do — Draft and clear a response through the approval gate before the next news cycle.

Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi

21%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
criticalPolling units without an accredited agent

Evidence — 19,385 of 176,846 units unaccredited — 11.0% of the roll

Do — Close accreditation before the INEC deadline. An unaccredited agent files nothing and defends nothing.

National

11%
vote touched
Mobilisation →
highPolling unit roll is a third short

Evidence — 58,314 of INEC's 176,846 units cannot be placed on a ward — the bundled geography predates the 2021 expansion

Do — Obtain the current directory from INEC or the CredibleVoteNG API before agent assignment depends on it.

National

33%
vote touched
Data & research →
highNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Kaduna: net sentiment -24, 5.7% of the national vote, APC 29% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Kaduna

6%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
highNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Lagos: net sentiment -15, 5.3% of the national vote, APC 45% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Lagos

5%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
mediumStates decided on thin margins in 2023

Evidence — 6 states finished within 6 points, together carrying 20.6% of the national vote

Do — Treat as the priority allocation list. None of these are safe in either direction.

Benue, Sokoto, Katsina, Lagos, Osun, Nasarawa

21%
vote touched
Campaign leadership →
mediumNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Plateau: net sentiment -17, 4.5% of the national vote, APC 28% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Plateau

5%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
mediumNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Bauchi: net sentiment -29, 3.6% of the national vote, APC 37% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Bauchi

4%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
mediumNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Oyo: net sentiment -41, 3.4% of the national vote, APC 56% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Oyo

3%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
mediumNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Osun: net sentiment -33, 3.1% of the national vote, APC 47% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Osun

3%
vote touched
Narrative desk →
mediumNet-negative sentiment in a heavy state

Evidence — Adamawa: net sentiment -44, 3.0% of the national vote, APC 25% in 2023

Do — Brief the state narrative lead. Test message against the dominant local topic.

Adamawa

3%
vote touched
Narrative desk →