Zamfara
Zamfara votes APC federally and rejected APC at state level in the same cycle. The party took the presidential election here by more than twenty points and lost the governorship three weeks later, to a larger electorate. Any plan that treats the 2023 presidential margin as the baseline is planning against the wrong number.
The governorship electorate is a third larger than the presidential one — and it votes differently
Three weeks apart, on the same register, Zamfara cast 37% more votes for governor than for president. The presidential poll drew 502,923 valid votes; the two leading governorship candidates alone drew 689,702. Roughly 187,000 Zamfara voters turned out for the state contest and not the federal one — a bloc larger than the entire APC margin in the presidential race here. They are not undecided voters to be persuaded. They are proven voters who did not consider the federal election worth the walk, and they broke against the party at state level.
2023 presidential
502,923 valid votes2023 governorship
Three weeks later, same registerThe first time the PDP has won a Zamfara governorship since 1999. The incumbent, Bello Matawalle, was unseated and subsequently appointed Minister of State for Defence. APC held four of fourteen local governments.
Local governments that decide this state
And whyHeld by the APC in the 2023 governorship, one of only four. Home LGA of the Chief of Campaign. Contains Jangebe ward, site of the 2021 mass abduction.
State capital and the largest polling unit block in Zamfara. Lost to the PDP in the governorship despite the APC presidential margin.
One of four APC governorship holds, and the site of collation disputes in 2023.
Among the worst affected by displacement — 1,174 people displaced from two wards in April 2026 alone.
The same split, in local governments
14 LGAs · presidential then governorshipEight local governments voted for the party federally and against it at state level, three weeks apart, on a larger turnout. That is not drift and it is not apathy — it is the same voters making a different choice when the ballot is about Zamfara. A federal campaign that inherits the presidential map here inherits twelve local governments it does not actually hold.
Seats on the ballot
3 senatorial · 7 federal · 24 state constituenciesFederal constituencies
Constituency membership is taken from INEC’s own election management records, ward by ward, rather than from a secondary source. That is what makes seat-level targeting possible here: every ward in Zamfara is now attributable to a senatorial district, a federal constituency and a state constituency. The composition of the 24 state constituencies is counted but not yet mapped ward by ward.
Senatorial districts
2023 result and compositionCarries Gusau, the state capital and the largest single block of polling units.
Held by the APC. Four local governments along the Katsina and Sokoto approaches.
The largest district at six local governments, and the one containing Talata Mafara. Held on 147,346 votes by Yari — two-term Governor of Zamfara, and himself born in Talata Mafara. Three of the four local governments APC held in the 2023 governorship sit here.
Security
290,000+ displacedZamfara is the centre of the North-West banditry crisis. Displacement is measured in hundreds of thousands, attacks are recorded at ward level, and both the campaign and the electorate operate inside that. Security is not one issue among several here — it is the frame every other issue is heard through.
279 schoolgirls abducted from GGSS Jangebe, in Jangebe ward of Talata Mafara. One of the largest mass abductions recorded in Nigeria. The ward remains a named unit on this platform’s map.
Widely reported, February 2021
Attacks on Kurfan Danya, Faransi, Mai Zogo and Keta displaced 1,174 people from 237 households — 655 children, 299 women, 220 men.
IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Zamfara Flash Report 284, April 2026
39 villagers abducted during a reconciliation meeting with an armed group leader, lured under the guise of dialogue.
ACAPS Nigeria conflict monitoring, 2026
Three operational consequences. Rallies and canvassing cannot be planned from a map alone — ward access changes week to week. Agent recruitment in displaced wards recruits people who no longer live there, so accreditation lists must be checked against current residence rather than the register. And a displaced voter is registered at a polling unit they cannot safely reach, which means turnout operations in the worst-affected LGAs are a transport and safety problem before they are a persuasion problem.
Internally displaced persons: 290,000+ — Zamfara State Government, reported 2026. A separate August 2026 count puts the figure above 261,000. The two are not reconciled and both are published here rather than averaged.
Every local government
14 LGAs · 147 wards · governorship result by LGA| Local government | Senatorial district | Wards | Polling units | Gov 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anka | Zamfara West | 10 | 127 | PDP |
| Bakura | Zamfara West | 10 | 114 | APC |
| Birnin Magaji | Zamfara North | 10 | 123 | APC |
| Bukkuyumkey | Zamfara West | 10 | 158 | PDP |
| Bungudu | Zamfara Central | 11 | 221 | PDP |
| Gummi | Zamfara West | 11 | 186 | PDP |
| Gusaukey | Zamfara Central | 11 | 354 | PDP |
| Kaura Namoda | Zamfara North | 11 | 175 | PDP |
| Maradunkey | Zamfara West | 10 | 146 | APC |
| Maru | Zamfara Central | 10 | 214 | PDP |
| Shinkafi | Zamfara North | 10 | 123 | PDP |
| Talata Mafarakey | Zamfara West | 11 | 185 | APC |
| Tsafe | Zamfara Central | 11 | 200 | PDP |
| Zurmi | Zamfara North | 11 | 189 | PDP |
Every local government and ward name here is real, from the national geography. Polling unit counts are the pre-2021 figures and run below the current roll. Governorship results are held by LGA winner; per-LGA vote counts are not yet sourced.
Platform readings
Simulated in this buildThese are generated readings, badged as such everywhere they appear. The geography and the 2023 results above them are INEC records.
Open triggers here
0Nothing currently scoped to Zamfara.
Reference
Every figure with its source- Registered voters
- 1,926,870
- Presidential turnout
- 27.64%
- Senate seats
- APC 2 of 3
- Governorship, 2027
- On the ballot
Against a national turnout of 26.71%. Zamfara turned out slightly above the national rate federally, and far above it at state level.
Zamfara North and Zamfara West held; Zamfara Central a PDP gain.
Zamfara is not an off-cycle state. Governor, State Assembly, Senate, House and presidential all contested across the two polling days.
What we do not know about this state
5 stated gaps- —Per-LGA vote counts are not sourced for either ballot. Winners by LGA are held for both. INEC publishes result sheets through IReV as scanned images rather than tabulated figures, so the counts require either form EC8D or a civil-society transcription.
- —State Assembly constituency composition is not mapped. INEC records 24 for Zamfara; which wards compose each is not yet held.
- —The polling unit count is the pre-2021 figure. Zamfara’s current roll after the expansion is higher and must be obtained from INEC.
- —Ward-level results are not published by INEC at presidential level, so ward vote weight is apportioned rather than measured.
- —IDP figures from the state government and from August 2026 reporting differ by roughly 29,000 and are not reconciled.
A state briefing that lists no gaps has not been checked. These are the questions to put to INEC and to the state party office before this drives money.